Bedford’s Tories may prove to have been the Tory tide’s worst result. Where the map was changing to blue all over England, Bedford Tories lost 40 per cent of their seats (adjusted for the changed numbers of the new unitary council).
The fact that Thursday’s borough elections were for 36 seats rather than the previous council’s 54 means there are no straight comparisons but that can be balanced with a bit of elementary arithmetic.
Thirty six is two thirds of 54 so all we need to do is calculate two-thirds of the seats held by the groups in the previous council (to the nearest whole number) to work out what would have been a standstill result. Anything lower means a loss of seats; anything higher means an overall gain. So:
Below are in turn group seat numbers in the old council, followed by standstill numbers (figures in brackets) followed by the number of seats each group holds in thenew council
Conservatives 20 (13) 9
Lib-Dems 15 (10) 13
Labour 11 (7) 7
Independent 7 (5) 7
From this we can see the Tories suffered a huge loss.
Lib-Dems gained three on their standstill figure.
To most people’s surprise, Labour maintained a standstill.
Independents gained two.
The Independents made a 40% gain on its standstill; Lib Dems gained 30%; Labour neither gained nor lost; Tories were down 41%.(because groups started from different bases the total does not add up to 100%)
Why are Bedford’s results so at odds with the rest of England? It may be that the splits in the Tories had an effect. It is received wisdom that voters punish disunited parties. They may also have suffered from the expenses scandal - Nadine Dorries’s comments on it may have percolated through, especially in those parts of the borough where she is the MP, such as Elstow and Wilstead where ex-Tory Barry Huckle beat the unpopular sitting Tory Lyn Faulkner.
The Lib-Dem machine was as efficient as ever. They held Harrold (which they had gained as a result of a Tory split in 2007) and may have benefitted from the Tories aiming their guns in the wrong direction.
Labour may have gained from Patrick Hall being identified as one of the ’saints’ in the expenses scandal.
The Independents gained from having some popular candidates. Doug McMurdo won back Sharnbrook with 56% of the vote. He had lost it in 2007 to a combination of over-confidence and a smear campaign.
In Riseley Ian Clifton was never troubled. As one wag put it: “They found somebody had voted against Ian; an inquiry is being held”.
Veronica Zwetsloot put the wind up Tom Wootton in Roxton where the Tories usually weigh their majority. If she decides to stand again she will have a very solid platform.
Labour came out of it smiling having held on to their pre-poll standstill and the Lib Dems are equally happy to have taken control of Brickhill where they also control the urban parish council.
But, after weighing all the factors, the result is probably down to Bedford cussedness. We have a reputation for going against the flow and we’ve done it again.